“鬼城”下的蜗居? ——收入不平等与房地产泡沫
张川川
中央财经大学经济学院
贾珅
国务院发展研究中心
11/11/2013 12:27:17 AM
摘要:
本文从理论模型出发,基于城镇住户调查数据考察了我国城市收入不平等对房地产泡沫的影响。研究结果显示,城市收入不平等显著推高了房价收入比和房屋空置率,基尼系数每增加 1 个百分点,城市房价收入比和房屋空置率分别增大 0.026 个点和 0.143 个百分点。2002 年至 2009 年间,城市收入不平等的上升分别解释了同时期房价收入比和房屋空置率增幅的大约 6%和 11%。进一步的研究表明,资本投资渠道缺乏和房屋租售脱节在房地产泡沫化的过程中起到了重要作用,发展资本市场和规范发展房屋租赁市场有助于降低房价收并入比和房屋空置率。本文的研究结论为理解我国住房价格的非理性上涨提供了新的视角,且为遏制房地产泡沫化提供了可操作的政策选项。
关键词: 
收入不平等 房价收入比 房屋空置率
Abstract:
Starting with a theoretical model, this paper examined the impacts of income inequality on housing bubbles using data from China’s urban household survey. The empirical results show that income inequality within cities significantly boosted housing price-to-income ratio and housing vacancy rate, one percentage increase in GINI coefficient increases housing price-to-income ratio by 0.026 points and housing vacancy rate by 0.143 percentages. During 2002 to 2009, about 6% increase in housing price-to-income ratio and 11% increase in housing vacancy rate can be attributed to increase of inequality. Further studies show that lack of investment channels and the segmentation between housing rental markets and house sales market both play important roles in formation of the housing bubble, developing capital markets and housing rental markets can be helpful in decreasing housing price-to-income ratio and housing vacancy rate. Results of this paper provide a new perspective for interpreting the irrational rise of housing price, and also provide operable policy choices for deflating the housing bubble.
Keyword: 
Income inequality; housing price-to-income ratio; housing vacancy rate