泡沫预防和硬软着陆
万军民
福冈大学经济学部
3/10/2014 9:11:15 AM
摘要:
基于资产估价模型,本文提出土地增值税、地价税、反投机期权和有限期土地使用制可作 为政府的优选政策来预防土地泡沫的生成。对于市场失败的产物-土地泡沫,政府有三种应对策略,即通过增值税和地价税或房地产税等手段挤破泡沫的硬着陆和高位维持泡沫的软着陆以及硬性软着陆。本文发现硬着陆虽然使泡沫破裂,但是使泡沫破裂后的土地市场价值低于原本无税时的土地基础价值,是市场失败后的政府调控失败。然而通过税收手段的硬性软着陆不仅可使已生成的泡沫不再增大,还可使调控后的土地价值回归到原本无税时的土地基础价值。根据历史经验,日美欧等经济体对于泡沫都采取了硬着陆政策而导致了金融经济危机,但本研究发现唯有我国台湾地区使上世纪 80 年代发生的土地泡沫成功软着陆而避免了金融经济危机。本文提出的理论和台湾经验对于解决我国当前部分城市的严重泡沫问题具有参考价值。
关键词: 
土地泡沫;泡沫预防;硬着陆;软着陆;税;日美和希腊泡沫;台湾泡沫
Abstract:
Based on the arbitrage asset pricing model, we show that capital gain tax, land value tax, counterspeculation option and limited period of land usage prevent the occurrence of land bubble. For the land bubble considered as a result of market failure, the government has three kinds of policies called as hard landing, soft landing and softly hard landing. Hard landing is that the government chooses financial or tax tools to make the bubble be crash, but the land market value after crash may be lower than that of fundamentals, thus hard landing is considered as the secondary governmental failure. Soft landing is that the government chooses land value added tax or capital gain tax to make the increasing bubble to be a constant value. Softly hard landing is that not financial but tax tool just as capital gain tax and land value tax are used to make the increasing bubble to be a constant value, and then the land market value ex post may be equal to that of fundamentals without both bubble and tax. Based on the historical facts, Japan, US and Greece experienced series land bubble and then they made the bubbly economies be hard landing. However, Taiwan made the land bubble in the 1980s soft landing. Our findings here would be important reference especially for solving the serious land bubble issues in some large cities of the current Mainland China.
Keyword: 
Land bubble; Bubble prevention; Hard landing; Soft landing; Tax; Greece bubble; US