中国对外直接投资对出口的影响分析
刘晓光
北京大学国家发展研究院
苟琴
北京大学国家发展研究院
卢锋
北京大学国家发展 研究院
4/9/2014 10:50:06 AM
摘要:
近年快速增长的中国对外直接投资(ODI)究竟会促进还是抑制中国出口?本文利用 2003-2012 年中国对世界 174 个国家 ODI 和进出口面板数据,基于贸易引力模型实证分析了中国 ODI 对贸易的影响。结果发现,中国对东道主国 ODI 能够显著地促进中国与该国贸易:对其 ODI 存量提高 10%,可促进下一期对其出口增长 2.14%,进口增长 2.07%,净出口增长 2.87%。初步测算表明,2003-2012 年间,中国 ODI 存量年均增长约 34.0%,促进出口、进口和净出口年均增长约 7.5%、7.2%和 9.3%,年均增加额约为 6389.3 亿元、5235.2亿元和 1154.1 亿元。此外本文发现,东道主国的经济规模和基础设施水平等因素也显著提高中国对其出口,而与中国的距离及人口抚养比等因素则显著减少中国对其出口。
关键词: 
对外直接投资; 进出口; 跨国面板分析
Abstract:
During the last decade, both China’s Outward Direct Investment (ODI) and exports have experienced rapid growth, providing a good opportunity to investigate the relationship between ODI and exports. Applying a panel data of China’s ODI and trade to 174 countries during 2003-2012, this paper employs the gravity model to empirically investigate the impacts of China’s ODI on exports. We find that China’s ODI to a host country significantly promotes China’s trade with that country: a 10 percent increase in ODI stock can lead to a 2.14 percent increase of exports, 2.07 percent increase of imports. During 2003-2012, the rapid increase of ODI leads export, import and net export to yearly increase about 638.9 billion, 523.5 billion, and 115.4 billion RMB, respectively. In addition, we find that the host country’s economy scale and infrastructure level also have significant positive impacts on China’s exports, while population dependency ratio and the distance to China significantly reduce China’s exports.
Keyword: 
Outward Direct Investment; Export and Import; Multinational Panel Analysis