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Policy Choice in Time Series by Empirical Welfare Maximization

简介:

This paper develops a novel method for policy choice in a dynamic setting where the available data is a multivariate time series. Building on the statistical treatment choice framework, we propose Time-series Empirical Welfare Maximization (T-EWM) methods to estimate an optimal policy rule for the current period or over multiple periods by maximizing an empirical welfare criterion constructed using nonparametric potential outcome time-series. We characterize conditions under which T-EWM consistently learns a policy choice that is optimal in terms of conditional welfare given the time-series history. We then derive a nonasymptotic upper bound for conditional welfare regret and its minimax lower bound. To illustrate the implementation and uses of T-EWM, we perform simulation studies and apply the method to estimate optimal monetary policy rules from macroeconomic time-series data.

时间: 2022-12-27 (Tuesday) 16:30-18:00
地点: 腾讯会议:37586125504
会议语言: 中文
主办单位: 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院、中国科学院预测科学研究中心、厦门大学邹至庄经济研究院、NSFC"计量建模与经济政策研究”基础科学中心
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